The Early Bird Gets the… Stage?
The 2028 Democratic primary has, unofficially, kicked off in two rather unexpected places: New Jersey and Virginia [2]. A host of potential presidential candidates are already making appearances, seeing these states as prime opportunities to boost their name recognition, cultivate relationships, and fine-tune their messaging for a national audience [1]. It’s a clear sign that the next election cycle is never truly far off for ambitious politicians.
Why New Jersey and Virginia?
These two states are not just battlegrounds for their respective gubernatorial races; they are also proving to be crucial testing grounds for national Democratic aspirations. National Democrats have underscored the high stakes involved, committing substantial initial investments—$1.5 million each in New Jersey and Virginia—to support candidates like Sherrill and Spanberger [3]. This financial commitment highlights the national party’s view of these races as critical, extending beyond local politics.
The appeal for 2028 hopefuls is multifaceted. Campaigning in these states allows candidates to road-test policy proposals and rhetorical approaches on real voters before the full glare of a presidential primary. It’s a chance to see what resonates, particularly on issues that Democrats are currently emphasizing. For instance, in Virginia, Democrats are heavily leaning into messages concerning affordability, arguing that the Trump administration has failed to deliver on promises to lower costs since his return to the White House [3]. This focus on economic concerns could become a central theme for future national campaigns.
Who’s Showing Up and What Are They Saying?
While the official list of 2028 contenders remains fluid, several figures are already making waves or being discussed in these early stages. Hawaii Governor Josh Green, for example, has been quite active on the summer circuit, attending party fish fries in South Carolina and plutocrat retreats in Sun Valley [4]. Green, who was recently elected as the National Governors Association vice chair, has also made a point of referencing other prominent Democratic governors like Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro and Maryland’s Wes Moore, signaling their potential relevance for 2028 [4]. Although Green himself might be considered for a health secretary position given his medical background, his actions suggest a keen awareness of the evolving Democratic landscape [4].
The strategy is not just about showing up; it’s about strategic engagement. New Jersey Democratic Party Chair LeRoy Jones has commented on the potential benefits of a campaign appearance from figures like Vice President Harris for candidates such as Sherrill [3]. These endorsements and appearances from high-profile national figures can provide significant boosts to local campaigns and, in turn, offer visibility to the national figures themselves.
The Stakes Are High
The races in New Jersey and Virginia are proving to be unexpectedly tight, adding another layer of intensity for the visiting 2028 hopefuls. A recent poll indicates that the Democratic candidate in New Jersey is ahead by a mere four points among registered voters, making it an increasingly close contest [5]. Such tight races demand robust campaigning and offer a realistic proving ground for candidates hoping to win over a diverse electorate.
Beyond the immediate gubernatorial outcomes, these states also carry significance in broader political strategy, particularly concerning redistricting. For example, both Colorado and Virginia had opportunities for Democrats to create more favorable maps if not for constitutional amendments establishing new redistricting systems post-2020 [7]. Virginia, despite having unified Democratic control in 2021, now operates with a divided government, underscoring the constant flux in state-level power dynamics [7].
The unofficial start to the 2028 primary in New Jersey and Virginia demonstrates the relentless pace of American politics. Potential candidates are not waiting for official announcements; they are actively building their platforms and testing their appeal in crucial state-level contests. It’s a preview of the national conversation to come, with affordability and leadership being key themes already emerging from these early skirmishes.
Sources & Footnotes
- https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/23/democrat-2028-candidates-nj-va-gov-00619171 ↩
- https://bsky.app/profile/politico.com/post/3m3unn66dms2h ↩
- https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/06/nj-va-stateofplay-00546896 ↩
- https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/07/30/democrat-governors-2028-ambitions-jonathan-martin-00482297 ↩
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM8jwm0MQvU ↩
- https://x.com/politico?lang=en ↩
- https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/as-redistricting-war-looms-republicans-have-more-plausible-opportunities-than-democrats/ ↩
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